Ghanaians, who’ve stayed away from the 2024 common elections, are leaning strongly in the direction of the Nationwide Democratic Congress (NDC).
That is in line with Mussa Dankwah, chief pollster at World Information Analytics, whose group launched its March 2026 follow-up ballot on Tuesday.
The examine examined voting intentions of absentee voters in 2024 throughout a number of demographic teams, together with training, faith, ethnicity, and revenue stage.
“The general conclusion is obvious: the 2024 voters who stayed dwelling should not impartial,” Dankwa stated.
“It’s tilted in the direction of the NDC and if the NDC is activated in 2028, it should exacerbate somewhat than offset the prevailing deficit of the NPP.”
The findings counsel that when these non-voters are factored into the forecast, NDC candidates, notably Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson and former Normal Secretary Johnson Asiedu Nketiah, enhance their help in nearly each class. In distinction, help for Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, seen because the figurehead of the NPP, has stagnated or barely declined.
Amongst voters with larger training, the hole between Dr. Forson and Dr. Bawumia widened from 26 factors to 29 factors when absentee voters had been included. An analogous sample emerges amongst voters with much less formal training, the place his benefit will increase from 11 factors to 13 factors.
This development goes past faith. Amongst Christian voters, Dr. Forson’s lead will increase from 19 factors to 22 factors when non-voters are included. The shift was much more pronounced amongst nonreligious voters, the place his lead jumped from 8 factors to 18 factors.
Nonetheless, the info present some exceptions.
Each NDC candidates seem like stalling within the Muslim neighborhood, notably amongst Shia and Tijaniyya Muslims, whether or not absentee voters are included or not. Analysts say this may occasionally mirror Dr Bawumia’s longstanding attraction amongst Muslim voters, notably in northern Ghana.
The ethnic breakdown of the ballot reveals the NDC has made slight features amongst Akan, Ga Adamme and Ewe voters when absentee voters are included, with the Ewe area remaining the occasion’s strongest base. Nonetheless, amongst Mande voters, Dr Forson’s numbers drop into destructive territory when non-voters are taken under consideration, an outlier that isn’t absolutely defined by the ballot.
The ballot provides a brand new layer to the evolving political panorama following the December 2024 common elections by which NDC President John Mahama defeated Dr. Bawumia by a decisive margin of 56% to 41%.
